A Historic Year for Global Politics
In 2024, the world is set to surf a political tidal wave, with over 50 countries conducting elections. This unprecedented level of global electoral activity will involve about half of the world’s population going to the polls.
The results will influence domestic policy but will also have broader implications for international relations, economics, global stability, and climate change. What occurs in 2024 will affect the world for decades, and we could all be living in a very different world this time next year.
Here’s an overview of the most significant elections taking place in 2024:
Europe: A Continent in Flux
Key European elections are scheduled throughout the year, including in the European Parliament in June, with the continent witnessing significant political shifts that could threaten the EU’s future. The rise of far-right movements, demonstrated by the victory of Geert Wilders's Freedom Party in the Netherlands, has reverberated across the EU. Donald Tusk’s win in Poland offers hope for centrists and liberals, but with a focus on migration policies and green reforms, the coming elections mark a critical juncture for the region's political trajectory.
Russia: Putin's Reign Continues
In March, Russia will hold its largely staged presidential elections, with Vladimir Putin all but guaranteed to secure another six years in power. Putin does maintain high approval ratings, but only because all his political rivals have been eliminated or exiled and many Russians know no other leader. Putin’s ongoing reign is priced in by other major economies, but with the attention of Europe and the US drifting from the Ukraine war, a Putin victory may make him more dangerous, especially given his ever-strengthening ties to China.
India: Modi Seeks a Third Term
India’s elections will take place in April with Narendra Modi seeking a third term as PM and his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party is expected to dominate. However, Modi’s autocratic leanings are not seen by younger portions of India’s fast-growing middle class as the future and there’s an outside chance that he will be frustrated by a new, 28-party coalition called INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance). However, for the rest of the world, it’s a case of being careful what you wish for, as a victory for a more centrist party could be bad news for the US’ hopes of using Modi as a counterweight to China’s dominance in Asia.
United States: Trump-Biden Rematch
The US presidential election is scheduled for November 5, and it looks set to feature a rematch between Trump and Biden. The election's outcome will influence US-China relations, global trade, green policy, US involvement in Ukraine and the Middle East, and energy markets. Investors are monitoring the real possibility of social unrest and its potential economic ramifications should Trump win or be prevented from running at the ballot box. The impact the result will have is enormous, both for the rest of the world and more significantly for the union of the US, which will be tested by the campaign before the election, the result, and the aftermath.
As the Guardian states: “A Trump victory … could permanently upend the international order, tipping the balance towards authoritarianism and dictatorship. If the US, “the city upon a hill”, ceases to fight for it, democracy will surely wither and die.” The stakes could not be higher.
Britain: Labour's Ascent
The UK’s general election will take place in the second half of 2024 and Labour, led by Sir Keir Starmer, leads the Conservatives in the polls by some distance. The Conservatives, under Prime Ministers Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss and Sunak, have been in power for 14 years and it seems that the voting population, especially given the lies and chaos under Johnson and Truss, want change. It’s not clear if Starmer is a natural leader and lacks charisma, but he does seem to be a centrist, safe pair of hands, which is what many in the UK have been asking for. How radical he dares to be in pulling the political and economic power of the UK back to the centre and left remains to be seen. Compared to other global elections, the outcome of the vote in the UK doesn’t feel as seismic, but a change of ruling party after 14 years would be significant, and a heavy defeat for the Conservatives could raise doubts about the party’s future.
The biggest of the rest
Beyond these elections, nations such as Mexico, Taiwan (taking place this weekend and crucial for US-China relations), Venezuela, Indonesia, South Africa, and Pakistan all go to the polls. No corner of the globe will be untouched by democratic votes in 2024 and we will learn whether the rise of populism was merely a short-term rejection of the political status quo or a longer-term shift towards a new political world order. Only time, and the counting of the ballots, will tell.
Democracy should be celebrated
With so many headlines given to worries about the shift towards a new populist world order, it’s easy to overlook the remarkable fact that so much of the world is governed by democracies.For most of human history, nations were ruled by kings, autocrats and dictators and democracy as we know it is a modern invention. So, while it can feel as if we’re “going backwards” when looking at some of the leaders being elected, it’s heartening to consider democracy’s strength.
2024 is a year of huge significance. Change is afoot. But the fact that some 4 billion people are allowed to vote in (mostly) free and fair elections is something to be celebrated.